MARCH MADNESS FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS

GameFlow Sports predicts every first round game while providing exclusive insight

SOUTH

1 AUBURN VS 16 ALABAMA STATE

The Auburn Tigers have without a doubt been the best team in college basketball this season... it's pretty safe to say that Alabama State won't give them much of a scare.

Score Prediction:

(1) Auburn - 95

(16) Alabama St. - 57

8 LOUISVILLE VS 9 CREIGHTON

I'll first off begin with mentioning how absolutely hosed Louisville got by the NCAA giving them an 8-seed. With that being said, 8 vs 9 seeded games are always tossups, interestingly enough 9 seeds have a winning record against 8 seeds in the first round. Louisville is an incredibly well balanced team and has a strong, proven defense. The Cardinals, led by senior transfer Chucky Hepburn has taken this teams offense to another level and has proven why he's one of the ACC's best players. Creighton, on the other hand is a team that lives from beyond the arc and has tournament-experienced guards like Steven Ashworth who hit five three-pointers in Creighton's round of 32 victory against Oregon just a year ago. It'll be interesting to see how well Pat Kelsey's defense can defend Creighton's shooters, but Ryan Kalkbrenner will be just as much or even a bigger concern for Louisville's defense. The Bluejays' big averages nearly 20 points and 9 rebounds per game.

Score Prediction:

(8) Louisville - 71

(9) Creighton - 74

5 MICHIGAN VS 12 UC SAN DIEGO

Potentially the most entertained upset pick of the tournament, at least one 12 seed has upset a 5 seed in 33 of the past 39 tournaments. It is easy to understand why this is such a popular upset pick as Michigan's obvious worst weakness is turning the ball over, the Wolverines rank 328 out of 364 teams in turnover rate per KenPom. On the bright side for Michigan besides taking home the Big Ten Championship, the Wolverines uniquely are the only team in the country that runs two seven-footers in their starting lineup in Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, UC San Diego could run into a ton of trouble early on here as they currently do not play anyone standing over 6'8". UC San Diego on the other hand is second in the nation in forcing giveaways. Additionally, the Tritons have Big West Player of The Year in Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, as well as the Big West Coach of The Year, Hustle Player of The Year, Sixth Man of The Year, Defensive Player of The Year, Freshman of The Year and Newcomer of The Year. It's safe to say that UC San Diego has been nothing short of impressive this year and it is clear they are hungry for more than just clinching the tournament. Expect the Tritons to force turnovers and force ugly shots.

Score Prediction:

(5) Michigan - 69

(12) UC San Diego - 74

4 TEXAS A&M VS 13 YALE

A Bulldogs upset is also a very popular pick in this years tournament as we saw Yale upset 4-seeded Auburn just a year ago. Yale's offense impressed many on Sunday against Cornell in the Ivy League Championship when Bulldogs star guard, John Poulakidas dropped 25 points. Yale is certainly capable of yet another upset. As for Texas A&M, they were early exits in a very competitive SEC Tournament. Despite this, the Aggies, led by one of the SEC's best in Wade Taylor IV, are a team that has beaten Auburn, Texas Tech, Purdue and Texas just to name a few. The competition of the SEC has battle tested the Aggies to a point where they should feel confident in playing Yale. Texas A&M is extremely well rounded where they have some of the best defense and rebounding in the country with the exception of shooting the deep ball. If the Bulldogs are able to take advantage of anything this game, it'll be Texas A&M's poor ability to shoot the three ball. Nonetheless, Texas A&M pretty much tops Yale in every other aspect and we should expect them to advance.

Score Prediction:

(4) Texas A&M - 76

(13) Yale - 68

6 OLE MISS VS 11 NORTH CAROLINA

Despite the amount of controversy around North Carolina's selection into the tournament, they proved on Tuesday night that they are more than capable of competing in March. North Carolina senior, RJ Davis is one of the best scorers in the ACC and is a big part of why the Tar Heels average over 80 points per match. The obvious concern regarding North Carolina is their poor conference competition. That's where we look at Ole Miss, who played in the SEC. Maybe it's a little SEC bias, but there is no doubt that they are battle tested. The Rebels have already taken down 2-seeded Tennessee and 2-seeded Alabama. I would like to think that Ole Miss's defense is going to contain North Carolina's scorers and punch their ticket to the next round.

Score Prediction:

(6) Ole Miss - 73

(11) North Carolina - 66

3 IOWA STATE VS 14 LIPSCOMB

Iowa State continues to impress over the past few years earning a top three seed yet again. Although star senior guard Keshon Gilbert is sidelined for the rest of the season, Iowa State still matches up well against the Atlantic Sun champions as Lipscomb relies heavily on the three ball. The Cyclones have one of the best perimeter defenses in this tournament, and I would expect Iowa State to take care of Lipscomb.

Score Prediction:

(3) Iowa State - 81

(14) Lipscomb - 70

7 MARQUETTE VS 10 NEW MEXICO

Just like 8 vs 9 games, 7 vs 10 games are just as unpredictable. Marquette is led by one of the most talented guards in the country in Kam Jones, who averages just south of 20 points and 6 assists a game. Marquette head coach, Shaka Smart already has a Final Four under his belt and is hungry for more. On the other hand, New Mexico returns to the tournament for a second consecutive season after a 10 year drought. The Lobos', Donovan Dent is one of the most intriguing players of this tournament after winning Mountain West Player of The Year and finishing 8th in the nation in scoring at 20.6 points per game. Dent is paired with 6'10" big man Nelly Junior Joseph who averages a double-double and is third in the nation in rebounding. It's also worth noting that New Mexico's head coach is none other than Richard Pitino, son of the legendary Rick Pitino. Pitino possesses an impressive 85-47 record as the Lobos head coach. This game can go either way but give me New Mexico considering Nelly Junior Joseph's dominance in the interior this season.

Score Prediction:

(7) Marquette - 73

(10) New Mexico - 79

2 MICHIGAN STATE VS 15 BRYANT

To close out the South region, Michigan State will obliterate a relatively good Bryant team. These two teams just are not even close to the same tier. Unfortunately, we will not be seeing a repeat of 2016 when 15-seeded Middle Tennessee State knocked off 2-seeded Michigan State.

Score Prediction:

(2) Michigan State - 87

(15) Bryant - 69

EAST

1 DUKE VS 16 MOUNT ST. MARY’S

Not much to say here, Duke will send Mount St. Mary’s back home quickly.

Score Prediction:

(1) Duke - 92

(16) Mount St. Mary’s - 60

8 MISSISSIPPI STATE VS 9 BAYLOR

Mississippi State is a team that could be heavily overlooked in this one as they played in a jam packed SEC finishing with a conference record of 8-10. Mississippi State point guard, Josh Hubbard (18.7ppg) has the potential to take over this game and disrupt a pretty inconsistent Baylor defense. With that being said, the Bulldogs carry a trait into this tournament that you really do not want, which is that they peaked pretty early on in the season. As for Baylor, the team is led by the freshmen duo of VJ Edgecombe and Robert Wright III, who have shown freakish athleticism all season long - with Edgecombe maybe having the most eye-popping athleticism in this whole tournament. Pair those two with veteran Jeremy Roach and there is a great possibility for Baylor to take over this game against a less than impressive Mississippi State defense, which has been a big weakness for them all season long. Baylor themselves have been pretty shaky at times and most definitely have not even came close to reaching the hype they entered the season with. Like I said before, 8 vs 9 games are complete tossups but give me national champion head coach Scott Drew and Baylor to get the job done.

Score Prediction:

(8) Mississippi State - 68

(9) Baylor - 76

5 OREGON VS 12 LIBERTY

The Liberty Flames return to the tournament for the first time in four years, and their first appearance as a member of Conference-USA. First things first is that the Flames shoot the deep ball at an incredible 40%, which is top five in the nation. Unfortunately for Liberty, it could be tough to get good looks against Oregon's defense who holds opposing offenses to just 31.6% from downtown, strategized by head coach Dana Altman, a coach who is one of the best at adjusting defenses often and efficiently. Along with Liberty's shooting efficiency, they have held opponents to an astounding 62.9 points per game, leading the C-USA. As for the Ducks of Oregon, it's safe to say that they should be nothing but confident entering Friday night's contest. Oregon has the advantage of playing just a state over in Seattle, Washington while Liberty has to travel across the country. Additionally, and more importantly, Oregon has been here before and Dana Altman knows how to get the job done in March. Since Altman's arrival in 2010, no program in the entire country has more wins in the month of March than Oregon, and since Altman's arrival he is a perfect 8-0 in the first round of the tournament. 

Score Prediction:

(5) Oregon - 79

(12) Liberty - 67

4 ARIZONA VS 13 AKRON

Just like the Texas A&M vs Yale matchup, we've seen Akron upsetting Arizona become a pretty popular pick. The Akron Zips have some of the most exciting offense you'll see led by junior guard, Nate Johnson. The Zips convert on 11 three-pointers per game which is top 10 in all of the nation and if they continue to shoot the rock well then Arizona could certainly have some trouble on their hands as Arizona struggles to defend the deep ball. The Wildcats from Arizona are just as explosive offensively. Caleb Love is the star of the show posting 16.6 points per game and has helped them secure six top 25 victories this season. The Wildcats have several options offensively that they can count on to get the job done and with Akron having the smallest lineup in all of the tournament, Arizona should be able to use this to their advantage against a very mediocre Akron defense.

Score Prediction:

(4) Arizona - 85

(13) Akron - 72

6 BYU VS 11 VCU

One of the most anticipated games of the first round. BYU is a fan favorite to make a deep run in this tourney with their incredible efficiency from beyond the arc. BYU has captured huge wins against Baylor, Kansas and Iowa State (twice) thanks to leading scorer, Richie Saunders (16.0ppg). BYU relies on the three ball maybe a bit too much and VCU has proven that they have some of the best defense in the country. This VCU team has experience, consistency and they are well-rounded. The formula for an upset has never been more clear for VCU but their lack of top competition could mean that they are in for a rude awakening, I like BYU to win this game.

Score Prediction:

(6) BYU - 82

(11) VCU - 72

3 WISCONSIN VS 14 MONTANA

The Grizzlies were able to upset Northern Colorado in the Big Sky championship to make their way back to the tournament for the first time since 2019. Unlike most of the other 14, 15, 16 seeds, Montana played some games versus power conference programs in Oregon and Tennessee. Long story short, Montana never stood a chance. Wisconsin is coming off of an incredible season where they finished runner-up in the Big Ten Tournament. The Badgers should be able to escape Denver with an easy first round victory.

Score Prediction:

(3) Wisconsin - 93

(14) Montana - 70

7 SAINT MARY’S VS 10 VANDERBILT

This is a game I've been going back and forth on. Saint Mary's pretty much dominated the West Coast Conference all season long until Gonzaga knocked them out in the championship game. Besides their exceptional defense (60.7 opponent ppg) Saint Mary's is incredible off the glass. When it comes to Vanderbilt, the Commodores have shown what they can do as they've knocked off teams like Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas A&M. Vanderbilt is a team that has elite ball movement and can score in a variety of ways. It'll be interesting to see how Saint Mary's stellar defense and Vanderbilt's high motor offense clash in this one, but I'll go with the Commodores to upset Saint Mary's in Cleveland.

Score Prediction:

(7) Saint Mary’s - 70

(10) Vanderbilt - 77

2 ALABAMA VS 15 ROBERT MORRIS

Robert Morris had an incredible year in the Horizon League winning 16 of their last 17 games, but expect the Crimson Tide to destroy Robert Morris offensively in every way you can think of. Alabama certainly has the ability to drop triple digits in this game en route to setting up a second round date with rival Vanderbilt.

Score Prediction:

(2) Alabama - 97

(15) Robert Morris - 61

MIDWEST

1 HOUSTON VS 16 SUIE

Houston is coming off another spectacular regular season and they'll have SIUE wishing they never even made the trip.

Score Prediction:

(1) Houston - 89

(16) SIUE - 52

8 GONZAGA VS 9 GEORGIA

There is no doubt in my mind that this game will showcase everything an 8 vs 9 game typically does. Georgia has been exciting to watch as they've beaten Florida, St. John's and Kentucky this season with superstar freshman Asa Newell. With this being Georgia's first bid to the tournament in an even 10 years, it's obvious that they will be hungry in this one. Though, Georgia struggles to keep the ball in their hands and turnovers could haunt them against a team like Gonzaga who scores in almost any way you could imagine (86.6ppg). It'll definitely be fun to see these two clash it out Thursday evening for the right to move on and test their luck with Houston.

Score Prediction:

(8) Gonzaga - 82

(9) Georgia - 77

5 CLEMSON VS 12 MCNEESE

Is it possible for McNeese to pull off the classic 5 vs 12 upset? Definitely. Do I think it will happen? No. We saw Clemson go all the way to the Elite Eight last year and this years team is much more new and improved. Despite playing in a weak ACC, Clemson bagged an 18-2 conference record which includes a win over number one seeded Duke. Clemson's backcourt is one of the most reliable in the country and they pair that with big Ian Schieffelin (12.8ppg, 9.4rpg) down below. McNeese gained a ton of hype last year to be a potential upset pick and failed to live up to that. Additionally, Will Wade has already been hired to be the next head coach at NC State, he's ready for the future.

Score Prediction:

(5) Clemson - 80

(12) McNeese - 70

4 PURDUE VS 13 HIGH POINT

Get your popcorn ready for this game. High Point has been an incredible team to watch all season long as they absolutely dominated the Big South this season. With High Point entering this game winners of 14 straight, they have all the momentum they need to give Purdue a run for their money. Underneath, they have Juslin Bodo Bodo to take on Purdue's Trey Kaufman-Renn, which should be a fun battle to see. As for Purdue, they have not looked like the same team we saw back in December as they have dropped six of their past nine. Should Kaufman-Renn get shut down, my initial thoughts were that I would still expect All-American point guard and arguably the best guard in the nation, Braden Smith along with head coach Matt Painter, who is coming off a season where the Boilermakers made the National Championship, to find a way to get the job done - with that being said, this is March. Purdue has been notorious the past few years for losing to low seeded teams. As well as this, I am on the High Point hype train and believe they can keep their season rolling with a big first round upset.

Score Prediction:

(4) Purdue - 75

(13) High Point - 83

6 ILLINOIS VS 11 XAVIER

This may be one of the trickiest games to predict. Illinois has been the definition of inconsistent this season where they can score 100 points on a top 25 team or get obliterated by 30 points on any given night. With that being said, Brad Underwood's offense is one of the best in the Big Ten and has been back on track in the past couple of weeks. Xavier is coming off of a brilliant come from behind victory in Dayton's First Four matchup against Texas, in a game that was virtually a home game for Xavier with Dayton being just an hour away from Cincinnati. We've seen an 11-seeded Xavier make a deep run in the tournament before, and they certainly have the tools to do it with excellent three-point shooting and excellent coaching in Sean Miller. I think the safe choice here would be to take the Illini but only time will tell which team shows up.

Score Prediction:

(6) Illinois - 84

(11) Xavier - 73

3 KENTUCKY VS 14 TROY

The first thing that comes to mind is Kentucky's first round exits in 2024 and 2022 to #14 Oakland and #15 St. Peter's, respectively. With these games in mind it certainly makes the thought of Troy pulling off the upset linger a little more than it should. To make a long story short, Kentucky is a new team with a fresh coaching staff and veteran sharpshooters for a change. I think it'd be silly to take the upset pick here with a Troy team who only luckily made it out of the Sun Belt.

Score Prediction:

(3) Kentucky - 90

(14) Troy - 68

7 UCLA VS 10 UTAH STATE

Can this game come any sooner? The committee did a great job blessing fans with this potential thriller of a game. UCLA is having a warm welcome in their inaugural Big Ten season where they finished in fourth place out of the 18 programs as well as finishing 5-3 against top 25 squads. UCLA is a team with solid depth and rather interesting chemistry. Utah State has been receiving their well-deserved hype all season long. The Aggies are incredibly well-rounded with a high scoring offense, consistent defense and underrated coaching. Utah State completed a season sweep against San Diego State in addition to wins at Iowa and Saint Mary's. The potential is there but the bottom line is this, if you give UCLA head coach Mick Cronin four days to prepare for an NCAA Tournament game, he is going to be prepared. Give me the Bruins.

Score Prediction:

(7) UCLA - 78

(10) Utah State - 75

2 TENNESSEE VS 15 WOFFORD

The Volunteers are coming off of another spectacular season where they were runners-up in the SEC Championship. While I think Wofford should probably be a 13 or 14 seed, reality is that they are seeded at 15 and will have to face Tennessee in the first round out in Lexington, Kentucky. The Vols should runaway with this one early on.

Score Prediction:

(2) Tennessee - 92

(15) Wofford - 65

WEST

1 FLORIDA VS 16 NORFOLK STATE

The Florida Gators are without a doubt, when healthy the most complete team in the nation. Norfolk State would be lucky to still be in this game at the 10-minute mark of the first half.

Score Prediction:

(1) Florida - 100

(16) Norfolk State - 54

8 UCONN VS 9 OKLAHOMA

This could be the best game of the entire first round. The back to back reigning champion UConn Huskies return to the tournament as an 8-seed after taking a step back in the Big East. Despite losing a ton of players and gaining new young stars, UConn has remained pretty constant statistically. Hurley still offers a strong defense and an explosive offense. UConn also posted a 5-2 record this year against top 25 teams. Heading over to Oklahoma, the Sooners are home to one of the best guards in the tournament in Jeremiah Fears. No matter what Dan Hurley's game plan is, I expect Fears to give immaculate trouble and force adjustments throughout this game. Fears, (17.0ppg) is paired with Jalon Moore who averages 16.0ppg as well, making them one of the deadliest duos in the SEC. As great of a game I think this will be, I think it would be crazy to bet against Dan Hurley - I'll take the Huskies.

Score Prediction:

(8) UConn - 86

(9) Oklahoma - 82

5 MEMPHIS VS 12 COLORADO STATE

What a sight this will be to see Memphis', PJ Haggerty (21.8ppg) and Colorado State's, Nique Clifford (19.0ppg) duel it out on Friday afternoon. Colorado State enters the tournament being winners of their last 10 including winning the Mountain West Tournament. As impressive as Nique Clifford has been when it comes to scoring the basketball, the Rams strong suit actually comes on the defensive end. Memphis themselves took home the AAC championship to clinch their bid back to the big dance. PJ Haggerty is one of the best scorers in the nation and will certainly give the Rams defense a handful. Unfortunately for Memphis, Tyrese Hunter is questionable for Friday's contest and if he is not able to play it could realy damage Memphis's odds in this one. This is a tossup of a game that I can truly see going either way but we've seen Memphis beat great teams this season and with the disappointment of Mountain West teams in recent tournaments I will be leaning towards the Memphis Tigers in this one.

Score Prediction:

(5) Memphis - 79

(12) Colorado State - 73

4 MARYLAND VS 13 GRAND CANYON

The Terrapins of Maryland went above and beyond this season by finishing in second place of a historical Big Ten season. The Terps are just as well rounded as a team can be which their fans should feel comfortable with. Freshman phenom Derik Queen is the X-Factor of this team - someone who really can do it all (hence why he's a projected first round pick). Now this is not to discredit Grand Canyon and what the Lopes have done this season. Grand Canyon is certainly one of the better mid-major teams in this tournament with Tyon Grant-Foster leading the pack with 14.5 points per game. Grand Canyon's defense has the ability to shut down shooters and force turnovers creating a scary sight for opposing offenses. The Lopes also enter play with tournament experience. The recipe for an upset is here, but personally I have Maryland as they are a team that improvises well and limits mistakes.

Score Prediction:

(4) Maryland - 79

(13) Grand Canyon - 67

6 MISSOURI VS 11 DRAKE

As commonly picked Drake is to upset Missouri, Missouri is a team led by Duke transfer Mark Mitchell and star guard Caleb Grill, who I think will have their ways in this one. Drake's defense allows just an astounding 58.4 points per game. It's worth noting that the Bulldogs never played a top 25 team and competed in a weak Missouri Valley Conference. This is not to discredit Drake's defense, they are great, but when you play an SEC team that averages just around 85 points per match in the first round of the tournament, you'll be in for a rude awakening. Drake is also a team with a ton of chemistry but when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, a ton of their roster consists of D2 transfers... will they be able to keep up with Missouri?

Score Prediction:

(6) Missouri - 78

(11) Drake - 69

3 TEXAS TECH VS 14 UNCW

UNCW is coming off of their CAA championship win over Delaware. Unfortunately for them they got matched up with a deadly Texas Tech squad. Texas Tech is more than definitely a dark horse to win this tournament. Most Red Raiders teams we've seen in the past have been carried by reliable defenses but this year the Red Raiders have shown that they have just as good of an offense as anyone else averaging 80.9 points per contest behind JT Toppin's 18.1 points per game. If you want your next March superstar candidate to keep an eye on, it's Toppin.

Score Prediction:

(3) Texas Tech - 93

(14) UNCW - 66

7 KANSAS VS 10 ARKANSAS

What a game this will be between two legendary coaches in Bill Self and John Calipari. With these two teams being equivalently inconsistent as well as matching up nearly identical on paper, the outcome is unexpected but what is expected is that this will be a phenomenal game against two teams with huge expectations coming into this season. Arkansas welcomes back freshman sensation Boogie Fland to reunite with DJ Wagner in the backcourt. On the other hand for Kansas, big man Hunter Dickinson, who was First Team All-Big 12 should find success off the glass and in the paint against the Razorbacks. Though, this is a Kansas team who struggles heavily at times to find a rhythm and hit shots on a consistent basis. Awfully similar to Kansas, Arkansas either has their touch or they don't. I'll give Bill Self's Jayhawks the benefit of the doubt against an unpredictable regrouped Arkansas.

Score Prediction:

(7) Kansas - 80

(10) Arkansas - 75

2 ST. JOHN’S VS 15 OMAHA

Rick Pitino has brought this Johnnies program back to what it once was and he isn't ready to end it here! Expect St. John's to destroy the Summit League champions in Omaha to punch their ticket to the second round.

Score Prediction:

(2) St. John’s - 91

(15) Omaha - 60